FPL GW1-3 Fixture Swings: Who to Buy, When to Sell

The Gameweek 1 deadline is Friday 21 August 2026, 18:30 BST. Rank the opening fixtures over three gameweeks instead of five and the board reorders — different clubs on top, different verdicts, and a set of exit dates that a five-gameweek average hides completely. This is the aggressive version of fixture planning: buy the opening run, then move before the run turns. The FDR scale is assumed knowledge from here.

The three-gameweek board

Across all twenty clubs the spread runs 2.33 to 4.00 — a wider gap over three games than the 2.60–3.60 the same league produces over five, because there is less time for a hard fixture to average itself out. That is the whole case for planning in threes: the shorter the window, the more a single fixture is worth, and the more the top of the table separates from the middle.

Man Utd and Sunderland share top spot at 2.33, and they are the only two clubs in the league with two 2-rated fixtures and nothing above 3 in the opening three. United go to Hull, host Ipswich, then travel to Everton. Sunderland go to Ipswich, host Fulham, then travel to Brentford. The difference between them is the STR column: United are a 4-star squad, Sunderland 2½.

Seven clubs get through GW1–GW3 without a fixture above 3: Man Utd, Sunderland, Brentford, Spurs, Man City, Liverpool and Leeds. Over five gameweeks that group shrinks to three. The clean-run advantage is a three-gameweek phenomenon, and it expires.

The 2s are also spread more widely than the promoted-club story suggests. They come from the three 2-star clubs — Coventry, Hull and Ipswich — but also from home fixtures against the 2½-star group: Spurs host Newcastle rated 2, Chelsea host Brighton rated 2, Brentford host Sunderland rated 2. There are only four 5-rated fixtures in the entire window, and all four are away trips to Arsenal or Man City.

Where those runs land in GW4–GW6

This is the table that turns a fixture list into a transfer plan. Set the two windows side by side and the swings are large:

• Sunderland 2.33 → 3.67 (+1.33), the sharpest deterioration in the league
• Man Utd 2.33 → 3.33 and Brentford 2.67 → 3.67 (+1.00 each)
• Man City and Spurs 2.67 → 3.33 (+0.67)
• Coventry 4.00 → 2.33 (−1.67), the sharpest improvement, from the league's hardest opening to its easiest second window
• Everton and Newcastle 3.33 → 2.33 (−1.00 each)
• Arsenal, Chelsea, Crystal Palace and Ipswich 3.33 → 2.67 (−0.67)

Read the swing column on its own and you get the wrong answer. A +1.00 swing that ends at 3.33 is a middling second window, not a bad one; a +1.33 swing that ends at 3.67 is a run you genuinely need to be out of. The size of the drop matters less than the level it drops to. Sort by destination and only two of the fast starters land somewhere that justifies selling: Sunderland and Brentford, both at 3.67.

The same logic applies in reverse. Coventry's −1.67 is the biggest improvement on the board and close to unusable — FPL rates the squad 2 stars, the joint-lowest in the league, so the fixtures improve into a side with limited means of converting them. Arsenal's −0.67 is a third of the size and worth far more, because it belongs to a 4½-star squad.

Three and out: the runs with a real cliff

Two clubs, and both are value plays rather than premium ones. Prices, points and ownership below are as of 11 August; points totals are last season's and the usual pre-season caveats on minutes and roles apply.

Sunderland — 2.33, then the worst two weeks in the league

SunderlandGW1–6

FDR 3.00

GW1

IPS (A) difficulty 2: Easy

GW2

FUL (H) difficulty 2: Easy

GW3

BRE (A) difficulty 3: Average

GW4

ARS (H) difficulty 4: Difficult

GW5

MCI (A) difficulty 5: Very Difficult

GW6

BHA (H) difficulty 2: Easy

Player	Price	Pts	Val	Sel
E.Le FéeMID	£6.0m	147	24.5	12.9%
RoefsGKPValue pick	£5.0m	136	27.2	5.0%
HumeDEF	£4.5m	110	24.4	4.4%
BallardDEF	£5.0m	116	23.2	4.2%
XhakaMID	£5.5m	124	22.5	5.3%

The purest buy-and-sell on the board. Ipswich away and Fulham at home are both rated 2, Brentford away is a 3 — then Arsenal at home and Man City away, a GW4–GW5 average of 4.50, the worst two-gameweek stretch any club faces in that window. There is no benching your way through that; a Sunderland asset held past GW3 is a Sunderland asset you have decided to punt with.

FPL rates the squad 2½ stars, so this is value-mode shopping at cheap prices. E.Le Fée (£6.0m, 147 points at 24.5 per million, 12.9% owned) is the most popular route in and the one with a full Sunderland season behind the number. Roefs (£5.0m, 136 points, 27.2 per million) is the best value in the group and a genuine budget goalkeeper for three weeks. Hume (£4.5m) and Ballard (£5.0m) are the cheap defensive routes at 24.4 and 23.2 per million, and Xhaka (£5.5m, 124 points) is the midfield alternative to Le Fée. Brobbey (£6.0m, 17.5% owned) is the most-bought Sunderland asset in the game but scored 92 points in 22 starts — the ownership is running ahead of the record.

Size this so the exit is cheap. One Sunderland player sold at GW4 is a free transfer; three is a rebuild you will not want to fund.

Brentford — 2.67, with one extra week of grace

BrentfordGW1–6

FDR 3.17

GW1

TOT (H) difficulty 3: Average

GW2

LEE (A) difficulty 3: Average

GW3

SUN (H) difficulty 2: Easy

GW4

BOU (A) difficulty 3: Average

GW5

CHE (H) difficulty 4: Difficult

GW6

AVL (A) difficulty 4: Difficult

Player	Price	Pts	Val	Sel
ThiagoFWD	£8.0m	181	22.6	16.0%
KelleherGKPValue pick	£5.0m	143	28.6	5.7%
KayodeDEF	£4.5m	113	25.1	3.7%
SchadeMID	£6.0m	125	20.8	2.0%
CollinsDEF	£5.5m	129	23.5	2.1%

Spurs at home, Leeds away and Sunderland at home rated 2 — then Bournemouth away rated 3 in GW4 before Chelsea at home and Villa away, both 4s. That extra playable week is the difference between Brentford and Sunderland: the exit is GW5, not GW4, which is exactly when a banked transfer arrives anyway.

Thiago (£8.0m, 181 points at 22.6 per million, 16.1% owned) started 37 games last season and is the reason to bother — a forward at a price that does not demand you also solve the bench. Kelleher (£5.0m, 143 points, 28.6 per million) is the best goalkeeper value anywhere in this piece. Kayode (£4.5m, 113 points at 25.1) and Collins (£5.5m) cover the defence, and Schade (£6.0m, 125 points, 2.0% owned) is the differential midfield route. A 3-star squad caps the ambition here: one or two, not three.

Bench, don't sell: the runs that only look like they end

Three clubs post big swing numbers and none of them earns a transfer. Their second windows are middling, not hostile, and the hard fixtures arrive one at a time.

Man Utd — 2.33, one hard fixture in six

Man UtdGW1–6

FDR 2.83

GW1

HUL (A) difficulty 2: Easy

GW2

IPS (H) difficulty 2: Easy

GW3

EVE (A) difficulty 3: Average

GW4

MCI (H) difficulty 4: Difficult

GW5

FUL (A) difficulty 3: Average

GW6

TOT (H) difficulty 3: Average

Player	Price	Pts	Val	Sel
B.FernandesMID	£12.0m	235	19.6	48.3%
MbeumoMID	£8.0m	148	18.5	23.6%
CunhaMID	£8.0m	143	17.9	12.8%
ShawDEFValue pick	£4.5m	113	25.1	24.3%
DalotDEF	£5.0m	111	22.2	3.1%
LammensGKP	£5.0m	109	21.8	19.8%

The swing reads +1.00 and the six-gameweek picture says something else: 2.83 across GW1–GW6 with exactly one fixture above 3 — the GW4 home derby against City. That is a planned bench week, not a sale, and the two softest fixtures come first, which is worth more to a GW1 squad than the same run back-loaded.

B.Fernandes (£12.0m, 235 points, 48.2% owned — third most-owned in the game) plays all six. Mbeumo (£8.0m, 148 points, 23.4%) and Cunha (£8.0m, 143 points, 12.8%) both have a United season behind them and take the other attacking slots. The cheap routes are better than they look: Shaw (£4.5m, 113 points, 25.1 per million, 24.3% owned) is a price-floor defender who started all 38 games last season — one of only eight players in the league who did, and the most-started player at United, and Dalot (£5.0m, 111 points, 3.1% owned) is the under-owned version of the same idea. Lammens (£5.0m, 19.8% owned) is the goalkeeper option if you would rather spend elsewhere. Šeško carries a 75% shin flag and Martinez a 75% thigh flag — leave both until they clear.

Man City — 2.67, and both hard weeks are away days

Man CityGW1–6

FDR 3.00

GW1

BOU (H) difficulty 3: Average

GW2

CRY (A) difficulty 3: Average

GW3

COV (H) difficulty 2: Easy

GW4

MUN (A) difficulty 4: Difficult

GW5

SUN (H) difficulty 2: Easy

GW6

LIV (A) difficulty 4: Difficult

Player	Price	Pts	Val	Sel
HaalandFWD	£15.5m	239	15.4	73.7%
GuéhiDEF	£6.0m	179	29.8	23.0%
O'ReillyDEF	£6.5m	160	24.6	22.3%
Matheus N.DEFValue pick	£6.0m	154	25.7	4.7%
SemenyoMID	£8.5m	202	23.8	26.1%
DonnarummaGKP	£5.5m	135	24.5	11.0%

Bournemouth at home, Palace away, Coventry at home rated 2, then Man Utd away, Sunderland at home rated 2, and Liverpool away. Two 4s in six, both away at 4-star clubs, and the STR column has something to say about that: at 4½ stars City are the joint-highest-rated side in the league and are favourites in most places they travel. FDR grades the opponent; it does not know who is arriving.

Haaland (£15.5m, 239 points, 73.8% owned — the most-owned player in the game) is the captain through the soft weeks and the reason the derby is a decision rather than an automatic bench. Guéhi (£6.0m, 179 points at 29.8 per million, 23.1% owned) is the best points-per-million figure of any pick in this article, though he joined in January and the total is split across two clubs. O'Reilly (£6.5m, 160 points, 22.3%) is the fully attributable defensive route and Matheus N. (£6.0m, 154 points at 25.7, 4.7% owned) the under-owned one. Semenyo (£8.5m, 202 points, 26.0%) carries the same January caveat, and Donnarumma (£5.5m, 135 points) is the premium goalkeeper.

Spurs — 2.67, and the only 4 is in GW6

SpursGW1–6

FDR 3.00

GW1

BRE (A) difficulty 3: Average

GW2

NEW (H) difficulty 2: Easy

GW3

NFO (A) difficulty 3: Average

GW4

EVE (H) difficulty 3: Average

GW5

AVL (H) difficulty 3: Average

GW6

MUN (A) difficulty 4: Difficult

Player	Price	Pts	Val	Sel
Van HeckeDEF	£5.0m	148	29.6	8.4%
SenesiDEF	£6.0m	175	29.2	10.4%
Pedro PorroDEF	£5.5m	117	21.3	23.3%
Van de VenDEFValue pick	£5.0m	116	23.2	7.1%
DubravkaGKP	£4.0m	96	24.0	22.7%
RicharlisonFWD	£6.0m	119	19.8	2.0%

Brentford away, Newcastle at home rated 2, Nott'm Forest away, then Everton and Villa both at home rated 3 before Man Utd away in GW6. Five playable weeks and one bench week at the end — a 3-star squad with a soft calendar, which puts the whole club in value mode rather than hold mode.

The defence is where the value sits, and most of it arrived this summer. Van Hecke (£5.0m, 148 points at 29.6 per million) and Senesi (£6.0m, 175 points at 29.2) post the second- and third-best points-per-million figures in this article, but both joined in the 2026 summer window and earned those points elsewhere — you are buying the price, not the Spurs record. Van de Ven (£5.0m, 116 points, 7.1% owned) and Pedro Porro (£5.5m, 117 points, 23.3%) are the two with a Spurs track record behind the number. Dubravka (£4.0m — the price floor, 22.8% owned) is the only goalkeeper priced at £4.0m with a single start behind him: 35 last season, though they came before his July move to Spurs. Richarlison (£6.0m, 119 points, 2.0% owned) is the forward route at a price that forgives rotation. Xavi is out with a knee injury and no return date.

The spine you don't touch

A squad cannot be all three-gameweek bets. Chasing every swing costs transfers, costs hits when a flag lands in the wrong week, and leaves you rebuying the same players at higher prices in October. Two clubs are worth owning through the whole opening block, and one of them is the reason a churn strategy works at all — it frees the transfers.

Liverpool — the one elite run with no cliff

LiverpoolGW1–6

FDR 2.83

GW1

NEW (A) difficulty 3: Average

GW2

NFO (H) difficulty 3: Average

GW3

IPS (A) difficulty 2: Easy

GW4

FUL (H) difficulty 2: Easy

GW5

BOU (A) difficulty 3: Average

GW6

MCI (H) difficulty 4: Difficult

Player	Price	Pts	Val	Sel
VirgilDEFValue pick	£6.5m	175	26.9	16.7%
SzoboszlaiMID	£7.0m	160	22.9	44.1%
GravenberchMID	£6.0m	144	24.0	2.0%
Mac AllisterMID	£5.5m	108	19.6	1.9%
KerkezDEF	£5.5m	85	15.5	5.1%
WirtzMID	£7.5m	125	16.7	14.2%

Newcastle away, Forest at home, Ipswich away rated 2, then Fulham at home rated 2, Bournemouth away, and City at home. 2.67 over GW1–GW3, 2.50 over GW4–GW5, 3.00 over GW4–GW6 — the swing is +0.33, the smallest of any club in the top six, and across all six gameweeks Liverpool average 2.83 with a single fixture above 3. A 4-star squad with no exit date is the definition of a hold: buy to the three-per-club cap and stop thinking about it until GW7.

Virgil (£6.5m, 175 points, 26.9 per million, 16.6% owned) is the defensive anchor and, like Shaw, started all 38 games last season. Szoboszlai (£7.0m, 160 points, 44.3% owned) is the most-owned Liverpool asset. The value slots are the interesting ones: Gravenberch (£6.0m, 144 points at 24.0 per million) is owned by 2.0% and Mac Allister (£5.5m, 108 points) by 1.9% — two nailed midfielders at a 4-star club that almost nobody owns. Kerkez (£5.5m) is the cheaper defensive route and Wirtz (£7.5m, 125 points, 14.1%) the ceiling play. Isak (£9.0m, 13.0% owned) scored 41 points in eight starts last season, which is the warning label on a £9.0m forward, and Ekitiké is out with an Achilles injury and no return date.

Aston Villa — flat 3.00, and that is the argument

Aston VillaGW1–6

FDR 3.00

GW1

BHA (A) difficulty 3: Average

GW2

ARS (H) difficulty 4: Difficult

GW3

HUL (A) difficulty 2: Easy

GW4

NFO (H) difficulty 3: Average

GW5

TOT (A) difficulty 3: Average

GW6

BRE (H) difficulty 3: Average

Player	Price	Pts	Val	Sel
CashDEFValue pick	£4.5m	117	26.0	8.0%
KonsaDEF	£4.5m	100	22.2	16.2%
WatkinsFWD	£8.0m	167	20.9	12.7%
MartinezGKP	£5.0m	120	24.0	4.9%
McGinnMID	£5.5m	103	18.7	2.7%

Villa are 3.00 across GW1–GW3 and 3.00 across GW4–GW6 — one of five clubs whose fixture difficulty does not move at all between the two windows, and they carry a single fixture above 3 across the whole six-gameweek block. Nothing here is a banker week and nothing is a write-off, which is precisely what you want from the players you are not planning to trade. At 3½ stars Villa are the strongest of those five flat-run clubs; the others are Forest, Brighton, Bournemouth and Fulham.

This is bench-and-forget territory, and the prices suit it. Cash (£4.5m, 117 points from 34 starts at 26.0 per million, 8.0% owned) and Konsa (£4.5m, 100 points, 16.3%) are two price-floor defenders who start every week — the fifth defender and the bench slot that never costs you a decision. Martinez (£5.0m, 120 points, 24.0 per million) is the same idea in goal. Watkins (£8.0m, 167 points, 12.7% owned) is the only Villa asset worth a starting-XI place on merit rather than convenience, and McGinn (£5.5m, 103 points) is the cheap midfield filler. Digne has left for Paris Saint-Germain — do not carry him over from last season's notes.

Buying the swing: where the GW4 transfers go

Selling is only half a churn strategy. These are the clubs the money moves into, and the plan should be made now rather than in the GW4 panic.

Arsenal — the hard start is the entry point

ArsenalGW1–6

FDR 3.00

GW1

COV (H) difficulty 2: Easy

GW2

AVL (A) difficulty 4: Difficult

GW3

CHE (H) difficulty 4: Difficult

GW4

SUN (A) difficulty 3: Average

GW5

BHA (A) difficulty 3: Average

GW6

LEE (H) difficulty 2: Easy

Player	Price	Pts	Val	Sel
GabrielDEF	£8.0m	209	26.1	26.7%
RayaGKPValue pick	£6.0m	162	27.0	31.0%
RiceMID	£7.5m	184	24.5	22.0%
ZubimendiMID	£5.5m	133	24.2	1.5%
CalafioriDEF	£5.5m	109	19.8	17.4%
GyökeresFWD	£7.5m	128	17.1	13.1%
SakaMID	£9.5m	157	16.5	10.7%

Coventry at home rated 2, then Villa away and Chelsea at home, both 4s. That averages 3.33: only Coventry (4.00) and Bournemouth (3.67) open harder, and six other clubs share the same figure. Then it flips — Sunderland away, Brighton away, Leeds at home rated 2, for 2.67 across GW4–GW6. At 4½ stars Arsenal are the strongest club on the improving side of the board.

Two ways to play it. Buy in GW1 and accept two hard weeks from a 4½-star squad — defensible, because the STR argument that applies to City applies here too. Or leave the slot empty, bank the transfers, and arrive in GW4 with the run already turning. The second is cheaper in points and more expensive in price rises, and which one wins depends on how much of your squad is already committed to the fast starters above.

Gabriel (£8.0m, 209 points at 26.1 per million, 26.7% owned) is the premium defender and the single highest points total of any defender in this piece. Raya (£6.0m, 162 points at 27.0, 31.0% owned) is the most-owned goalkeeper here. Rice (£7.5m, 184 points, 22.0%) and Zubimendi (£5.5m, 133 points at 24.2, 1.5% owned) are the midfield pair — one template, one almost entirely unowned. Calafiori (£5.5m, 17.3%) is the cheaper defensive route, Gyökeres (£7.5m, 128 points) leads the line, and Saka (£9.5m, 157 points, 10.7%) is the premium ceiling. Saliba and J.Timber are both out with no return date — the defence is thinner than the price list suggests.

Chelsea, Everton and Newcastle — the cheaper swings

Swing-window targets, GW4–GW6 fixturesFDR over GW4–6

Player	Club	Price	Pts	Val	FDR	Sel
João PedroFWD	CHE	£7.5m	177	23.6	2.67	55.6%
LacroixDEF	CHE	£6.0m	154	25.7	2.67	11.4%
EnzoMID	CHE	£7.0m	157	22.4	2.67	5.5%
TarkowskiDEFValue pick	EVE	£6.0m	170	28.3	2.33	9.7%
NdiayeMID	EVE	£6.0m	128	21.3	2.33	15.1%
KeaneDEF	EVE	£5.0m	131	26.2	2.33	1.6%
ThiawDEF	NEW	£5.0m	126	25.2	2.33	2.0%
WoltemadeFWD	NEW	£6.0m	108	18.0	2.33	1.7%
PopeGKP	NEW	£5.0m	96	19.2	2.33	1.2%

Chelsea are 3.33 → 2.67 and a 4-star squad — the second-best swing-in after Arsenal. The GW3 trip to Arsenal is one of only four 5s in the opening window; after it comes Hull at home rated 2. João Pedro (£7.5m, 177 points, 55.5% owned — second most-owned in the game) is the template route, Lacroix (£6.0m, 154 points at 25.7) the new defender, and Enzo (£7.0m, 157 points, 5.5% owned) the under-owned midfielder. Chalobah has left for Como and Fofana is suspended until 6 September — both are stale picks from last month's shortlists.

Everton swing −1.00 into 2.33, with Ipswich at home and Hull away rated 2 in GW5 and GW6. Tarkowski (£6.0m, 170 points at 28.3 per million) started 37 games; Keane (£5.0m, 131 points at 26.2) is the cheaper version; Ndiaye (£6.0m, 128 points, 15.2% owned) is the attacking route. Garner is out until around 22 August.

Newcastle post the same −1.00 into 2.33 — Leeds away rated 3, then Hull at home and Coventry away, both rated 2 — but at 2½ stars this is value shopping, not a premium buy. Thiaw (£5.0m, 126 points at 25.2, 2.0% owned) is the pick; Woltemade (£6.0m) and Pope (£5.0m) are the cheap attacking and goalkeeping routes.

How much churn is actually affordable

The arithmetic is the constraint, not the fixture list. You get one free transfer per gameweek and can bank up to five, so holding from GW1 through GW3 arrives at the GW4 deadline with four free transfers — enough to rotate an entire three-and-out block in a single move without a hit. Spend them piecemeal in GW2 and GW3 and that move costs 8 or 12 points instead.

Which sets the sizing rule: the number of short-term assets you own should be at most the number of free transfers you expect to have when their run ends. Two Sunderland and two Brentford players is four exits due across GW4 and GW5, and that is affordable. Six fast-start assets is not — it is a wildcard you did not mean to play.

Three other costs are worth pricing before committing:

• Price rises work against the plan. Buying a player everyone else is also buying for the same three fixtures means selling him after the crowd has already moved on, and a player bought high and sold low costs squad value on top of the transfer.
• A flag in the wrong week breaks the sequence. If a fast-start asset picks up a knock in GW2, the transfer you had earmarked for the GW4 exit gets spent on the injury instead. Every extra short-term hold raises the odds of that.
• The bench has to work. A churn squad plays 11 of 15 every week regardless, and the flat-run cheap defenders — Cash, Konsa, Shaw — are what stops a bad week becoming a blank one.

The GW1 playbook

1. Rank on the destination, not the swing. A club dropping from 2.33 to 3.33 does not need selling; a club dropping to 3.67 does. Only Sunderland and Brentford qualify in this window.
2. Pair every run with its strength rating. Coventry have the biggest improvement on the board and 2 stars to convert it with. Arsenal have a third of the swing and 4½ stars. Buy the second one.
3. Set the exit date when you buy, not when the fixtures turn. Sunderland is a GW4 sale, Brentford a GW5 sale, and both should be written down before the GW1 deadline.
4. Cap the short-term block at your transfer budget. Four exits due by GW5 is affordable on banked transfers; six is not.
5. Anchor the squad on the runs with no cliff. Liverpool for the premium slots, Villa's £4.5m defenders for the bench. They are what pays for the churn everywhere else.
6. Re-check the window before you spend. The GW4–GW6 table above is the one your transfers are aimed at — slide it forward in the FPL fixture difficulty planner before you commit.

Related tools and reading

• FPL Fixture Difficulty Planner — the live FDR and team strength table for all 20 clubs, with an adjustable gameweek range.
• FPL Easiest Fixtures GW1–GW5 — the same opening run read over five gameweeks, for managers building a squad to hold.
• Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR) Explained — what the 1–5 scale rates and how the ratings are set.
• How to Manage FPL Transfers Like a Pro — the transfer principles this plan assumes.
• How the Banked Transfer Change Affects Strategy — the five-transfer bank that makes multi-week planning affordable.